What about diesel after February 5? An embargo is coming.

In a few weeks, the embargo on imports of Russian petroleum products will come into force. For the fuel market, this is a real “check”. One third of the diesel used in Poland is imported from abroad. For years, its largest supplier was Russia. Business argues that it is ready for day zero, but, as the expert warns, logistics may be the weakest link. The behavior of customers is also a risk – if they move en masse to the stations, they can drive up the prices themselves.

The embargo on the import of Russian petroleum products enters into force on February 5, 2023. In Poland, the biggest challenge will be to replace the diesel fuel purchased for years in Russia

The business assures that since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine it has been preparing for a complete cut off from purchases in Russia. PKN Orlen boasts that it has already suspended imports, and Unimot has rented a terminal in Denmark enabling the import of fuels from around the world

The data confirms turning away from the Russians and shows new suppliers on the fuel map

The expert warns, however, that the real market “check” will come at the end of February or March, and the weakest link in the whole process may turn out to be logistics in the country

The bad news is that importing fuel from distant corners of the globe will be more expensive, which may affect the prices at stations

A risk that may cause an increase in prices is also the purchase of fuel by drivers and entrepreneurs “in reserve” before February 5, which may deplete the supply and, as a result, increase its price

Domestic consumption, despite the forecasted economic slowdown, will remain at a high level in the coming months due to the fact that part of the diesel oil purchased in Poland is later delivered to Ukraine, says Urszula Cieślak, an analyst at Reflex.

– Shortly after February 5, I do not expect any turmoil on the market, because there will still be oil contracted before the entry into force of the embargo. Everyone who is still trading with Russia will do so until the last minute, and deliveries will continue for the next few weeks. That is why I expect the market “checking” rather in the last weeks of February or the beginning of March – he indicates and explains what this “checking” will consist of.

— We hear declarations from various countries that want to supply fuel to Rotterdam. The key issue will be how the logistics will be prepared for reloading in ports and beyond. If we are optimally prepared, nothing will happen. At the same time, however, the fact that fuels will flow from other directions and will be reloaded several times will affect the price. Each subsequent cost element in the supply chain will increase the final price of fuel in the country – explains Urszula Cieślak and adds that in her opinion “physical product should not be missing”. As long as the lesson in logistics has been done and we are properly prepared for the transport of fuels in the country.

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