French fund bets against Poland: sees higher interest rate and lower prices

The French fund Carmignac (with 37 billion euros Assets-under-Managment) describes Poland as a country “particularly vulnerable to rising inflation” and predicts that the National Bank of Poland will soon be forced to raise interest rates in order to curb price growth.

This opinion was expressed in a letter from Didier Saint-Georges, a member of the strategic investment committee, whose excerpts are cited by the London-based investment website Citywire.

Saint-Georges also admitted that Carmignac is currently taking short positions in the markets it deems most exposed to rising inflation, with Poland as an example.

To clarify: in the financial markets, taking a short position means entering into trades that are profitable if the prices of a given financial instrument fall. In practice, therefore, Carmignac predicts a decline in asset prices on the Polish market.

In line with the fund’s forecasts, inflation may soon become such a pressing problem in Poland that the NBP will be forced to introduce restrictive monetary policy and raise interest rates sooner than originally planned.

Carmignac is a French fund established in 1989 dealing with asset management on 16 national markets. According to data provided by the company, it currently has assets under its management with a total value of EUR 37 billion.


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